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September 18, 2003

THE ARAB BOMB....Via Atrios, the Guardian is reporting that Saudi Arabia is considering the acquisition of nuclear weapons:

A strategy paper being considered at the highest levels in Riyadh sets out three options:

  • To acquire a nuclear capability as a deterrent;

  • To maintain or enter into an alliance with an existing nuclear power that would offer protection;

  • To try to reach a regional agreement on having a nuclear-free Middle East.

....United Nations officials and nuclear arms analysts said the Saudi review reflected profound insecurities generated by the volatility in the Middle East, Riyadh's estrangement with Washington and the weakening of its reliance on the US nuclear umbrella.

....Arab countries yesterday urged the International Atomic Energy Authority, the UN nuclear watchdog, to get tough with Israel to let inspectors assess its nuclear programme in line with similar pressure on Iran.

Saudi Arabia may have sound reasons for feeling that their relationship with the U.S. is on shaky ground, but something tells me the final paragraph tells the real story here. After all, the only likely sellers of nuclear warheads are Pakistan and China, and it's hard to believe that either one would risk obliterating their relationship with the U.S. by talking to the Saudis about this.

On the other hand, given the worsening of the Israeli/Palestinian war in recent months, this leak may seem to the Saudis like a sensible way of firing a shot across the bow about U.S. support for Ariel Sharon. After all, the Arab states have always been annoyed that Washington pressures them endlessly about WMDs while winking at Israel's well known stock of nuclear weapons. Perhaps they've decided to become a little more vocal about it.

Anyway, I'm in an optimistic mood this morning so that's what I think. Tomorrow might be another story. Stay tuned.

Posted by Kevin Drum at September 18, 2003 09:00 AM | TrackBack


Comments

might also want to check out today's WaPo:

here.

"The Bush administration also reports a new Saudi willingness to curb financial support for terrorism and to let the FBI operate in the kingdom. But neither the experts nor Washington should get carried away. There is still evidence that the Saudis will try to have it at least both ways for as long as they can, even in the war on terror.

U.S. authorities in Baghdad have provided the Saudis with a list of more than 12,000 religious extremists they would like prevented from infiltrating Iraq, I am told by non-conference sources. They add that the Saudis have done nothing about the list or about the continuing steady flow of jihadis across the border. 'They talk up cooperation and wait for the Americans to go back to sleep,' says a U.S. source. "

not a good thing

Posted by: ChrisL at September 18, 2003 09:02 AM | PERMALINK

Well the Pakistanis did give North Korea nuclear documents/weapons and didn't really suffer for it.

Posted by: Rob at September 18, 2003 09:18 AM | PERMALINK

Recall also that Saudi Arabia has a significant number of Shiite subjects in the northeast who are effectively second-class citizens and are targets of Sunni Islamist invective and harrassment. Iranian-Saudi relations are on a better footing than in Khomeini's day but the relationship has never been very good, even when Iran was under the Shah. Given their preference the house of Saud would probably prefer that neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia " go nuclear" but a nuclear armed Iran balanced only by Israel makes the Saudis very uneasy.

Posted by: mark safranski at September 18, 2003 09:38 AM | PERMALINK

I agree that this is probably a deliberate leak to put pressure on us. That the Saudis feel nervous enough to try this seems like good news.

a regional agreement on having a nuclear-free Middle East

That's clearly diplo-speak for blaming the Israelis. Of course, what everyone knows but no one admits is that the reason the Israelis can be trusted with nukes and the Saudis, Iranians, etc. can't is that WMD is only a problem in the hands of tyrannical regimes; it's always the regime itself that's the core of the problem.

Posted by: Crank at September 18, 2003 10:00 AM | PERMALINK

Given the longstanding relationship between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in financing the madrassahs in Pakistan and the connections between the Pakistani ISI and the Saudi princes allegedly financing Al-Qaeda, I would find it quite possible that Saudi Arabia could get a bomb from elements in Pakistan. It is my understanding that at least some of the Pakistani nuclear scientists are very conservative islamists and tied to the ISI. The help doesn't have to come from the Pakistani government itself. Musharraf's hold is a little tenuous. OTOH, I think that this has more to do with Israel. But I would not be so dismissive of the Saudi intentions. If there is one thing we have learned, it is that Saudis are not monolithic and there are many factions within the ruling family.

Posted by: Mimikatz at September 18, 2003 10:07 AM | PERMALINK

But are Americans willing to use the only lever we have with the Saudis -- by using less gasoline?

We're doomed. On a ride to hell in a Hummer.

Posted by: squiddy at September 18, 2003 10:16 AM | PERMALINK

I always kinda wondered why more hadn't been made of the Pakistan rumours, particularly given that:

- Saudi Arabia purchased a number of relatively long-range, relatively innaccurate, and very expensive CSS2 missiles from China ( http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/missile/saudi.htm )
- These are pretty useless without nukes
- Pakistan has nukes but needs money
- SA needs nukes but has money
- SA has given billions and billions to Pakistan in aid.

Mmmmmn...

I think it's quite likely they've already got a couple of shitty uranium bombs or something, and this is just some kind of ambiguous gesture to mirror the veiled threat posed by Israel's (not so) ambiguous nuclear status.

Posted by: delpy at September 18, 2003 10:29 AM | PERMALINK

"...After all, the only likely sellers of nuclear warheads are Pakistan and China,..."

Um, North Korea?

Posted by: flory at September 18, 2003 10:33 AM | PERMALINK

Pay more attention to the third option: "To try to reach a regional agreement on having a nuclear-free Middle East." This would mean that the Israelis would come under pressure to give up the atomic bomb; perhaps this is what this is really about.

The second option is to ally with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia's brother nation in trying to export Wahabi fanaticism.

Posted by: Joe Buck at September 18, 2003 10:35 AM | PERMALINK

First we got the bomb, and that was good
'Cause we love peace and motherhood
Then Russia got the bomb, but that's okay
'Cause the balance of power's maintained that way
Who's next

France got the bomb, but don't you grieve
'Cause they're on our side, I believe
China got the bomb, but have no fears
They can't wipe us out for at least five years
Who's next

Then Indonesia claimed that they
Were gonna get one any day
South Africa wants two, that's right
One for the black and one for the white
Who's next

Egypt's gonna get one too
Just to use on you know who
So Israel's getting tense
Wants one in self defense
"The Lord's our shepherd," says the psalm
But just in case, we better get a bomb
Who's next

Luxembourg is next to go
And, who knows, maybe Monaco
We'll try to stay serene and calm
When Alabama gets the bomb
Who's next, who's next, who's next, who's next

Posted by: Canadian Reader at September 18, 2003 10:41 AM | PERMALINK

weakening of its reliance on the US nuclear umbrella

Is there some kind of defense treaty between the US and Saudi Arabia? What mental midgets in our government thought Americans are willing to risk global nuclear war to protect a corrupt, hateful monarchy?

Posted by: RonZ at September 18, 2003 10:45 AM | PERMALINK

It could be that the Saudi's are worried about Israel attacking them. Or maybe they figure that once Iraq is (reasonably) settled down, they're next. They just got a look at how fast and hard the US can hit in conventional warfare, and in Saudia Arabia, the US only has to occupy the oilfields, pipelines and ports.

The worse climate is actually better from the US point of view. It should be rougher on guerilla's.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are some well-developed plans to blow the fields, pipelines, pumping stations and harbor facilities, but that's tricky. If things are all ready, redundantly wired
and charged, then any whacko faction might blow things. If things are not in place, then the US might just blow in.

And it all depends on the US administration not being willing to suffer the temporary loss of a chunk of Saudi production. And that might be more thinkable after 9/11 and the conquest of Iraq than before.

Posted by: Barry at September 18, 2003 10:54 AM | PERMALINK

Flory: there's bad, and then there's bad. I can at least conceive of Saudi Arabia buying a bomb from Pakistan, but all hell would break loose if they bought one from North Korea. I just don't see it.

And post-9/11, Pakistan and China would be nuts to do it too. Pakistan got away with developing nukes in the first place (sort of) and then playing footsie with North Korea, but they wouldn't again. Unless someone has a change of heart (or change of regime) and simply doesn't care anymore about a possible invasion by the U.S., they wouldn't sell a nuke to Saudi Arabia. Because I think that's what they'd be risking.

Just my thoughts.

Posted by: Kevin Drum at September 18, 2003 12:06 PM | PERMALINK

Of course, they wouldn't have to actually buy a nuke. As long as they fund the development, they're holding a gun.

Posted by: Manish at September 18, 2003 12:16 PM | PERMALINK

Then there's the increasing neocon pressure on the Syrians (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20030916/wl_mideast_afp/us_syria_030916230109) to give up their WMD. But, as many of you pointed out, how realistic is it to expect Arab nations to unilaterally disarm when Israel has a stockpile of chemical and nuclear weapons?

I think a WMD free zone in the Middle East is the way to go but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Posted by: Steve at September 18, 2003 01:00 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin,
This makes the US position in Iraq even more meaningful. We can intervene without asking permission. Our freedom of manuever, both operationally and strategically is vastly increased. Bets part, when Iraq finally gets on its feet we can rearm it, just like we did Germany, and get a true alley in the region based on similar goals. Whoever wins the '04 election will truly be in a stronger position since we eliminated Saddam's dictatorship (something even the true nutcases agreed was very evil and needed to go, just disagreed on the method...)

China has no worries about US invasion, but does want to continue its economic growth that would be directly threatened if they got into a trade war over giving nukes to SA - just doesn't look like a good move regardless of how much $ they are offered. As for Pak - they may slip one to the terrorists themselves but a public sell would lose the US as an alley and shove us into India's arms. And India IS the threat to the PAKs. NK may be insane, but I don't think handing the US/SK a cause belli on a golden platter is in the future.

This is all about trying to disarm Israel and comes up every few years. Israel will not give ups its nukes as they, more than anything else, guarantee they will not be defeated in a direct invasion. This will go away in less than one news cycle...

Posted by: buffpilot at September 18, 2003 01:30 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin--
Risking invasion by the US with what troops? How big a country are we talking about here? China? Get real. Pakistan? Same. This is one of the unintended consequences of the Iraq war--we are tied down in that country and have lost our military flexibility. This may be a good thing because it limits Bush, but it doesn;t make us any safer.

Posted by: Mimikatz at September 18, 2003 01:52 PM | PERMALINK

Saudis already have a weapon. Oil. I'd say it's more powerful than a nuke. If the Saudis stop pumping oil, it will be more devastating than a dirty bomb in DC.

Posted by: Arash at September 18, 2003 01:57 PM | PERMALINK

Yes, the Saudis have oil.

They also have huge debt against all the possible oil they will ever extract. And, this means they've used their future to buy their current behaviors.

They haven't invested in infrastructure.

And, right now, because they're personally a group (10,000 strong, or more), of dimwitted clowns, everything they 'want' they have to buy.

My guess is that the Chinese and the Pakistanis, with my money on the Chinese, are gonna be the ones who 'own the oil.'

The Saudis will bankrupt themselves in debt.

They'll buy technology they don't know how to use.

And, right now, even though you think there's Homeland Security, there isn't much cooperation. Just talking heads with money from the government to set up offices. And, pay for medals that the head honchos glue onto the chests of the likes of Wesley Clark. Those who were 'first in their classes.'

Oh, yeah? Why do statistics show that the kids who did best in school, rarely do well in the real world?

I pick on Clark. But, it could be anybody. Colin Powell, too, is an artist at getting a decorated chest.

Doesn't amount to a hill of beans in the real world.

Oh. And, I don't think local authorities trust the FBI. In places like Boston, where Logan was used to set off the highjackers who took out the WTC, and the Pentagon on 9/11. And, who were thrown to earth in Pennsylvania by courageous passengers; I think the rules have changed.

I think on a local level more people take security seriously than ever before.

And, if we get hit with a bio/terrorist attack I'd sooner blame Bush in the White House, than anyone else. This boychick is desperate for an election win.

Sometimes, nature, herself, provides the limiting factors we need, when we get real doozies leading us into troubled waters. If the government didn't stop the song, we'd all be whistling's Woody Guthrie's BIG MUDDY about now.

Posted by: Carol in California at September 18, 2003 02:04 PM | PERMALINK

Arash - That would hurt them more than anyone else. They just have a lot of the world's oil, not all of it; but oil exports are just about all of their economy. They're not suicidal.

Furthermore, there are a lot of unused reserves in the world which are not in production because they can't compete with Arabia on cost. If Arabia stops producing, oil prices rise, bringing those reserves into profitability.

Posted by: squiddy at September 18, 2003 02:21 PM | PERMALINK

Squiddy - in the long run. In the short run, they have the power to really wreck havoc with the world economy. Their worries are (1) can they keep their own society from revolting during the troubles, and (2) would the US invade in such a crisis?

Buffpilot - what Gulf War II has shown is that:

(1) The US military is extremely dominant on a conventional battlefield. Quelle surprise, but the magnitude was impressive.

(2) The ability and presumed willingness to inflict harm on the US or its allies is a good deterrent (see Korea, North).

(3) That the ability of the US to occupy and control a contry is much more limited than straight-up battlefield domination. The RPG and the mine are really good weapons, still.

(4) Controlling a country once the major battles have been won is still very difficult. The situation in Iraq has drastically *reduced* the ability of the US to conduct ground operations. Air operations are presumably only somewhat degraded, similarly for naval operations (I'd guess). The US has *reduced* freedom of maneuver, both operationally and strategically - both from the occupation, and from the diplomatic fall-out.

What the Saudi's fear in that respect is (1) how things will go several years down the road (i.e., will Iraq become a secure US base) and (2) will the administration feel that a second war, to seize Saudi oil, be worth it, considering the present situation.

Posted by: Barry at September 18, 2003 03:56 PM | PERMALINK

squiddy--The Saudis (or a plane with terrorists at its control) can bring the United States, along with the rest of the world's oil addicted economies, to their knees. They can crash into Abqaqi's stabilizing towers. Or Ras Tanura's Platform 4. Or the East-West pipeline's Pupm Station One. Doesn't really matter.

Those who think that Alaskan, Canadian, or South-American oil can save us are just appeasing the enemy. Yes, we only import 8 to 10% of Saudi oil. What is overlooked is that the House of Sa'ud sits on 25% of the world's (cheapest extractable) oil. More importantly, the Saudis own half the world's surplus production capacity, which is around 2 or 3 million barrels a day. Take out Tanura's Platform 4 and the U.S. is on an economy going down a roller coaster facedown without any breaks. They saved us in 1973, 179-80, 9/12/01 and this past April.

Fact: five extended, disfunctional families own 60% of the world's oil reserves. They don't need nukes. For example, if they (loosely using that word of course) unleash a dirty bomb, we will probably unleash something devestating. Gone House of Sa'ud plus everybody in the Arab peninsula.

Another example, al-Qaeda hijacks a plane, crashes into Tanura's Platform 4. Goodbye House of Sa'ud. Oh, and America.

One more thing: they are not suicidal? What? Half of the al-Saud family has donated money to al-Qaeda, knowing that it would stike either today or tomorrow inside the Kingdom. If you think that the House of Sa'ud is one nice, united, sane family you're wrong. One half-cousin hates his own half-brother. King Fahd shits in his own pool in front of his family. They are suicidal, even more than the 19 men on those 4 planes.

Posted by: Arash at September 18, 2003 05:05 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin notes: Pakistan and China would be nuts to do it too.

Yep. China sees the 21st century as theirs. They've owned a couple of centuries in the past couple millenia and see themselves as capable of owning this one: 1.5 billion people who are increasingly educated, assertive, and dynamic in an economy that works increasingly well (all glory to the party, yadda-yadda) should become a, if not the, superpower on the earth.

No way they're going to blow it now by doing something so monumentally stupid as to give a nuke to the House of Saud. The Sauds were peasants until 50 years ago and (in Chinese terms) are merely a drop in the ocean. The Chinese play and think for the long-term.

The Pakistanis won't -- while a fair proportion of their citizens would qualify (by western clinical standards) as completely nuts, the risk they run is that the Indians would end up owning the subcontinent. And that would never do. Perv is a smart man, and while he doesn't control the ISI completely, I don't see a nuke slipping away.

I recall a news report from before the Iraq liberation to the effect that one of the things done very quietly in the US/Pakistani deal that allowed us to use Pakistan to get to Afghanistan is that we agreed to help Perv with his nuclear security -- aka, some very quiet special forces help. I don't have a URL, regretably, but perhaps someone knows more about this.

Posted by: Steve White at September 18, 2003 09:24 PM | PERMALINK

Crank:
I hate to disagree with someone who loves baseball, and especially the Red Sox, but I'm not sure about this one:
WMD is only a problem in the hands of tyrannical regimes; it's always the regime itself that's the core of the problem

Why do you think that? That's not a rhetorical question, I'm genuinely curious. I mean, let's look at the history, with regard to nuclear weapons, which is what we're concerned with here:
1) The U.S. (non-tyranny) has used nuclear weapons.
2) The U.S.S.R. (tyranny) never used them.
3) The apartheid regime in South Africa (tyranny) had nukes that they didn't use. When they were replaced by an ANC regime (non-tyranny, but disparaged as terrorists before they took power), S.A. dismantled its nuclear program.
4) India (non-tyranny) has implicitly refused to rule out going nuclear in a potential conflict with Pakistan (sometimes tyranny).
5) France (not a tyranny, but cheese-eating surrender monkeys) has weapons which they're always testing in the South Pacific, and annoyed the hell out of their allies because the force de frappe couldn't hit anything beyond Germany.

I don't see a pattern here.

Posted by: Keith at September 18, 2003 09:30 PM | PERMALINK
After all, the only likely sellers of nuclear warheads are Pakistan and China, and it's hard to believe that either one would risk obliterating their relationship with the U.S. by talking to the Saudis about this.

North Korea might well sell a small number of warheads, or provide assistance. Then again,
I wouldn't be surprised if Pakistan did --
after all, Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran
have cooperated on nuclear weapons and ballistic
missile technology in various combinations, Pakistan is an established proliferator.

Posted by: cmdicely at September 19, 2003 07:30 AM | PERMALINK

OKay. The largest oil reserve system in the world isn't enough for the Saudis. Now, they want to own the radioactive stuff, too.

Only thing is they've never built schools. The Muslims don't get useful books. And, whatever they buy may not work. Whose to say? The reason you see testing is that it's got to overcome large engineering problems to function. Not Saudi's strong suit.

Meanwhile, an interesting book, Adventure Capitalism, by Jim Rogers, had this wonderful businessman spend three years traveling the globe, and talking about what he saw. He had a visa into Saudi Arabia; and this is what he saw:

They're in debt, folks. They've gambled that oil prices will always go higher to pay off their current bebt load. They've already spent their future. And, are near collapse. (Sure, if the world wars, it's possible the price of energy will climb); but no one really knows what's ahead.

The Saudi's are over-populated among their princes. The benefits of being born one of them once ran high. Not any more. Right now there are 1.5 million Saudi girls of child-bearing age, unable to marry, because in their society marriages are arranged. And, there's no room, now, for such moves. (Love is not an option.)

That these sand fleas make an impression in America has more to do with scam/aid and what the Dulles boys dropped on us in the State Department; without elected officials, and with money to burn. Huge sums of money. No accounting necessary.

ENRON was the tip of the dishonest iceberg. But until ACCOUNTABILITY comes back into fashion I'm not so sure a nuke is what will do us all in.

A president who gets all flustered, however, when provoked by sand fleas, well that's a problem right now. How long can this problem last?

Even dumb republicans see life stirring among the democrats. Imagine if the democrats attract the moderates? What will the country club fellas have left?

Well, what's in gonna be? How ugly can Rehnquist get? Can the Supreme-O's cancel 2004?

When the Recall here in California gets counted, just which side will have wished the 9th prevailed?

Half a million people have already voted absentee. This election may be the blowout that local elections never have enjoyed before. So, it should be interesting to watch the People speak.

Hard to get honest information from the presstitutes, by the way. In Sweden they couldn't call the blowout victory (56%) against the Euro.

And, people are not deciding what to do at the last minute! People make up there minds long before they cast their votes. You didn't know that?

Posted by: Carol in California at September 19, 2003 02:52 PM | PERMALINK

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